by Faiz Riziq | Feb 10, 2025 | Ekonomi, Perniagaan & Korporat, Luar Negara, English & Other Country
The ringgit’s impressive performance over the past year is now under pressure as Malaysia’s largest trading partner, China, faces economic uncertainty amid an ongoing trade war with the US.
With President Donald Trump imposing a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods, Bloomberg Economics estimates that China’s GDP could take a 0.9% hit. This could spell trouble for Malaysia’s trade-dependent economy and add pressure on the ringgit, which is already dealing with foreign stock sell-offs and a stronger US dollar.
A Bloomberg survey suggests that the ringgit may depreciate by 2.5%, reaching 4.55 per dollar by the end of March. Foreign investors have already offloaded $761 million worth of Malaysian equities this year—the highest outflow among Southeast Asian nations—weakening the ringgit further.
External Pressures on the Ringgit
Lloyd Chan, a currency strategist at MUFG Bank Ltd., warns that “global trade uncertainty will remain a key drag.” He expects additional US tariff measures, which, combined with declining market sentiment in Asia, could weigh down the ringgit even more.
Despite being one of the best-performing emerging market currencies in 2024, the ringgit remains highly vulnerable to trade war escalations due to Malaysia’s deep trade ties with China. According to the International Monetary Fund, about 25% of Malaysia’s exports go to China, making it one of the most exposed economies in Asia.
The ringgit appreciated by 2.7% last year, but this very strength makes it more susceptible to a sharp correction if trade tensions worsen. Trump has already signaled the possibility of “very, very substantial” tariffs on China should negotiations fail.
Malaysia’s Response and Outlook
Some experts, including Barclays strategist Lemon Zhang, suggest that the ringgit’s relatively mild depreciation post-US elections indicates room for further declines. Should Trump impose a blanket tariff on critical imports, the ringgit could face even greater downside risks.
On Friday, the currency dipped slightly to 4.4397 per dollar. Analysts believe that Malaysian authorities might intervene to stabilize excessive fluctuations. Bank Negara Malaysia has previously encouraged state-linked firms to repatriate and convert foreign earnings to bolster the currency after it hit its weakest level since the 1998 Asian financial crisis.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim remains optimistic about Malaysia’s economic resilience. The nation is set to release its fourth-quarter GDP report on Friday, which will provide further insight into its economic trajectory.
“Risks to the ringgit come from broader dollar movements driven by trade tensions and higher US interest rates,” said Abhay Gupta, FX and rates strategist at Bank of America Securities.
by Faiz Riziq | Feb 7, 2025 | Ekonomi, Perniagaan & Korporat, Luar Negara, English & Other Country
Asian stocks headed for early declines Friday after muted moves on Wall Street as traders awaited US jobs data that will help illuminate the path ahead for interest rates. Shares in Australia and equity futures for Hong Kong and Japan fell, with the latter partly weighed by a stronger yen. The Japanese currency was steady Friday after four daily advances against the dollar to trade around the highest level since early December. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will meet with US President Donald Trump on Friday.
The S&P 500 closed 0.4% higher, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.5% on Thursday. Shares in Amazon.com Inc fell in after-hours trading following earnings results that showed projected profits for the current quarter below analysts’ estimates. The shortfall indicates the company continues to ramp up spending to support artificial intelligence services.
Treasuries were slightly lower across the curve Thursday. An index of the dollar tracked against a basket of currencies was little changed. The moves signal a dose of calm ahead of nonfarm payroll figures due later Friday that will refocus traders away from the drama over tariffs earlier in the week that initially rattled financial markets.
Friday’s jobs report is expected to show 175,000 new roles added to the US economy. A weak print could boost expectations for further Federal Reserve cuts, while a stronger-than-expected number may have the opposite effect.
Separate jobs data released Thursday showed initial jobless claims picked up while labor productivity remained robust. In addition to the employment print Friday, Wall Street will be closely watching a revision to job growth. Economists predict that will be substantial, but probably not as bad as initially estimated.
“Friday’s jobs report is important for markets because if it’s Goldilocks, it’s going to help support the market amidst all this tariff and policy noise,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “However, if it’s not Goldilocks, it’s going to add another headwind on risk assets and likely pressure stocks.”
The British pound fell as the Bank of England lowered interest rates, with two officials supporting a 50-basis-point cut that prompted markets to boost bets on further easing. But the central bank also halved its growth forecast for this year to 0.75% and projected much stronger inflation than expected.
Elsewhere, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated his view on a lower path for 10-year yields under the Trump administration. Bessent said there has been no “tinkering” with the Treasury department’s payment systems by Elon Musk’s government efficiency team and added that their work would lead to significant savings.
In Asia, data set for release includes outright bond purchases for the Bank of Japan, inflation for Taiwan and a rate decision in India. Consensus forecasts indicate the Reserve Bank of India will cut its benchmark repurchase rate 25 basis points to 6.25%, but some analysts say there is a chance the RBI could cut by twice that amount.
Revision Risk Every year, the January employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics comes with revisions for the 12 months through the previous March. Those adjustments traditionally don’t get much attention. But this week they will, because the agency’s preliminary estimate in August suggested the downward revision would be 818,000 — the largest since 2009.
Economists expect the actual markdown in the January report due Friday will probably come to around 600,000 to 700,000 jobs, which would be somewhat of a relief. The standard monthly jobs data is expected to show payrolls increased by 175,000 last month after advances in excess of 200,000 in the prior two months — which partly reflected recovery from two severe hurricanes.
For Fed officials, the expected outcome of the January jobs report and the benchmark revisions will likely be consistent with their view that labor demand is moderating, though still strong enough to underpin the economy.
“As long as Friday’s jobs report shows that the economy added 170,000-200,000 jobs during the month, the market should largely absorb this number with little volatility,” said Gaurav Mallik at Pallas Capital Advisors. “If we see a number much stronger than this, it could remove the prospects of any rate cuts this year, and if it’s a number much lower, it could raise worries about a weakening labor market.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week officials want to see more progress on inflation and would be looking for “serial readings” showing price pressures moving in the right direction.
For now, traders still see the Fed’s next move as a cut — although likely not until mid-year. Treasury yields hit 2025 lows this week.
In corporate news, Qualcomm Inc sank on fears demand for new handsets will stall. A bullish outlook lifted Peloton Interactive Inc. while Philip Morris International Inc. hit a record high on solid sales of Zyn nicotine pouches. Ford Motor Co sank amid a profit warning.
In commodities, gold was steady after retreating from a record high Thursday, its first decline in six sessions. Oil fell as Trump’s renewed pledge to drive down the price of crude overshadowed his push for tighter Iranian sanctions.
by Faiz Riziq | Feb 6, 2025 | Ekonomi, Perniagaan & Korporat, Luar Negara, English & Other Country
Malaysian and Uzbek companies are being urged to explore new partnerships to unlock the vast economic potential between both nations, said Investment, Trade, and Industry Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz. Speaking at the Malaysia-Uzbekistan Business Forum on Wednesday, he emphasized the importance of business-to-business (B2B) and government-to-business (G2B) collaborations, which are paving the way for strategic partnerships across multiple industries.
Major Agreements Signed Across Key Sectors
The forum saw the signing of several Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) in high-impact industries such as:
- Electronics & Semiconductors
- Automotive Industry
- Hydropower & Solar Energy
- Chemical & Food Industries
- Pharmaceuticals
“These agreements will drive the growth of both our economies and industries,” said Tengku Zafrul, reinforcing the importance of Malaysia’s role as a global manufacturing and services hub. Also present at the event were Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, highlighting the commitment of both governments to fostering stronger economic ties.
Malaysia’s SMEs: A Key Partner for Uzbekistan
Tengku Zafrul also underscored the significance of Malaysia’s small and medium enterprises (SMEs), calling them the backbone of the nation’s economy. With advanced capabilities in manufacturing, technology, agriculture, and logistics, Malaysian SMEs are well-positioned to integrate into Uzbekistan’s growing supply chains. “The resilience and adaptability of Malaysian SMEs make them reliable partners for Uzbek companies looking to expand their sourcing and distribution networks in the region,” he noted.
Uzbekistan’s Rapid Growth Presents Exciting Opportunities
Uzbekistan, one of the world’s youngest and fastest-growing economies, is on track to achieve a GDP growth rate of 5.5% to 5.8% over the next three years. With ongoing economic reforms and modernization efforts, the country is becoming an attractive investment destination.
Tengku Zafrul welcomed Uzbekistan’s strong interest in learning from Malaysia’s expertise and developing deeper industrial ties. “By leveraging each other’s strengths, both nations can accelerate economic progress and create long-term benefits for businesses and industries,” he added. As Malaysia and Uzbekistan move towards a new era of economic cooperation, businesses from both sides have an unprecedented opportunity to collaborate, innovate, and expand into new markets.
by Faiz Riziq | Feb 6, 2025 | Ekonomi, Perniagaan & Korporat, Fakta & Informasi, Luar Negara, English & Other Country
Amerika Syarikat (AS) bakal melangkah ke era baharu dalam dunia pelaburan global! Selain daripada fokus terhadap tarif import, negara kuasa besar ini tidak lama lagi akan mempunyai Dana Kekayaan Berdaulat (Sovereign Wealth Fund, SWF) yang bertujuan mengukuhkan kedudukannya dalam pasaran masa depan. Perkara ini dimuktamadkan selepas Presiden Donald Trump menandatangani persetujuan untuk menubuhkan dana khas ini, dengan Jabatan Perbendaharaan diberi tempoh setahun untuk merealisasikannya.
Apa Itu Dana Kekayaan Berdaulat?
Dana Kekayaan Berdaulat atau Dana Mahsul ialah dana pelaburan milik kerajaan yang digunakan untuk melabur dalam aset kewangan dan fizikal seperti:
- Saham & bon
- Hartanah
- Dana ekuiti persendirian
- Dana lindung nilai (hedge funds)
Fungsi utama dana ini bukan sekadar untuk pelaburan tempatan dan antarabangsa, tetapi juga sebagai tabung simpanan jangka panjang bagi memastikan kestabilan ekonomi negara. Dengan kata lain, ia berfungsi untuk menyokong bajet negara, pembangunan sosial, dan memperkukuhkan aset negara.
Bukan sesuatu yang asing, lebih 90 negara di dunia sudah memiliki SWF mereka sendiri, termasuk Malaysia yang mempunyai Khazanah Nasional sebagai dana mahsul utama.
Dana Ini Mampu Mencapai $2 Trilion?
Walaupun Trump masih belum mendedahkan jumlah sasaran sebenar, ada kemungkinan dana mahsul AS ini boleh mencapai lebih $2 trilion! Jika ini berlaku, ia akan menjadi dana kekayaan berdaulat terbesar di dunia, mengatasi:
- Dana Pencen Kerajaan Norway – $1.37 trilion
- Perbadanan Pelaburan China – $1.35 trilion
- Syarikat Pelaburan SAFE China – $1.01 trilion
- ADIA (Pelaburan Abu Dhabi, UAE) – $853 bilion
Dengan jumlah sebesar ini, AS berpotensi untuk melabur secara agresif dalam sektor strategik dan meningkatkan pengaruhnya di peringkat global.
Selain Beli TikTok, Trump Mahu Baik Pulih Infrastruktur AS
Jabatan Perbendaharaan kini diberi 90 hari untuk merangka pelan terperinci bagi dana ini. Jika diluluskan oleh Kongres, ia boleh dilaksanakan dalam tempoh setahun.
Antara perancangan utama dana ini termasuk
- Pembaikan infrastruktur – jalan raya, lapangan terbang, dan industri pembuatan
- Penyelidikan perubatan – meningkatkan pelaburan dalam sektor kesihatan
- Potensi pembelian TikTok – ada kemungkinan dana ini digunakan untuk pembelian platform media sosial tersebut
Meskipun sumber pendapatan dana ini belum diperincikan, Trump pernah mencadangkan bahawa hasil tarif import boleh menjadi salah satu sumber utama bagi mengisi dana ini.
Bagaimana Ini Akan Mempengaruhi Dunia?
Jika dana ini menjadi kenyataan, AS bukan sahaja dapat mengukuhkan ekonominya, malah boleh memberi impak besar kepada pasaran global. Dengan jumlah pelaburan yang lebih besar, AS boleh:
- Meningkatkan kawalan ke atas industri strategik
- Mempengaruhi trend ekonomi dunia
- Menjadi kuasa pelaburan global yang lebih dominan
Persoalannya kini – adakah pelan ini akan menjadi realiti, atau sekadar janji politik? Sama-sama kita nantikan perkembangan selanjutnya!
by Faiz Riziq | Feb 4, 2025 | Ekonomi, Perniagaan & Korporat, Luar Negara, English & Other Country
The US-China trade war has taken a new turn as President Donald Trump announced his administration’s intention to engage in talks with China. This move raises hopes for a potential delay in the 10% tariffs set to take effect soon after Trump previously postponed similar levies on Canada and Mexico.
Key Developments:
- Upcoming Negotiations
Trump revealed that discussions with China are expected to take place within the next 24 hours. Over the weekend, he confirmed that the tariffs on China were scheduled to go into effect at 12:01 AM on Tuesday.
- Significance of the Talks
The President emphasized that if a deal isn’t reached with China, the tariffs would be significantly increased. This statement signals the high stakes involved in the ongoing trade negotiations.
- Focus on Chinese Fentanyl
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt disclosed that Trump intends to address the issue of illegal Chinese fentanyl, which has been contributing to thousands of American deaths each year. She reiterated Trump’s firm stance on holding China accountable.
- Mexico and Canada Deals
The administration’s attention has shifted towards China after securing agreements with Mexico and Canada to delay 25% tariffs. These agreements were in exchange for stricter measures to curb migration and drug trafficking at the border.
- China’s Response
China’s reaction to Trump’s announcement has been relatively restrained, given that it coincided with the Lunar New Year holiday. The Commerce Ministry expressed strong dissatisfaction, warning of countermeasures and plans to file a complaint with the World Trade Organization.
As the situation unfolds, all eyes are on the upcoming talks between the US and China. A successful negotiation could de-escalate tensions and impact global trade dynamics significantly.
by Faiz Riziq | Feb 3, 2025 | Ekonomi, Perniagaan & Korporat, Luar Negara, English & Other Country
In a significant diplomatic engagement, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim met with former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on Sunday to deliberate on pressing regional and financial matters. Thaksin, who currently chairs the Asean Chair 2025’s informal advisory group, engaged in a productive discussion with Anwar on issues including the evolving situation in Myanmar and the rapid development of cryptocurrencies.
“In the evening, we extended our discussions with former Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo,” Anwar shared in a Facebook post, emphasizing the importance of cross-border collaboration on these critical subjects.
This meeting follows Anwar’s announcement on December 16 last year, appointing Thaksin as an informal adviser to aid Malaysia in its role as the Asean Chair for 2025. With Malaysia officially taking over the Asean Chairmanship on January 1, this marks the country’s fifth tenure since Asean’s inception in 1967.
Malaysia has previously held the Asean Chair in 1977, 1997, 2005, and 2015. As preparations for 2025 gain momentum, these high-level discussions signal Malaysia’s commitment to regional stability and economic advancements in the ever-evolving global landscape.
Recent Comments